Well, here it is. The absolutely final throw of the dice for two of the teams at the very bottom echelon of the finals equations. Of course, even a win here followed by another in Round 26 no longer guarantees either of these teams a shot at finals glory.

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They’ll still need a bucketful of other results to go their way with the Broncos, Raiders and Knights all involved in a bottom-of-the-eight stoush and even the Warriors, Eagles and Roosters still in doubt. You’d almost need a Harvard degree in theoretical physics to understand every permutation possible over the next two rounds but for the Eels and Rabbitohs the immediate equation is blindingly simple – win here or start making plans for 2011.

Parramatta have the added hurdle of a poor for-and-against, which means even if they win back-to-back matches AND get the other results they need, they still have to overcome the points differential of teams ahead of them. They have a slightly more favourable (but by no means easy) Round 26 match-up at home to the Warriors, whereas Souths travel to WIN Jubilee to face the top-of-the-table Dragons.

The Bunnies could be forgiven for thinking the football gods haven’t been in their corner in 2010, as injuries to key players at crucial times cruelled their chances. The absence of John Sutton, David Taylor and co. was felt keenly last week as the Bunnies capitulated against a Panthers outfit that had won just one of their previous six games – and it doesn’t get much better this week as Souths undergo a major reshuffle.

Eddy Pettybourne has taken the early guilty plea and accepted a one-match ban for a careless high tackle, although Dave Taylor returns from a broken collarbone as a direct swap in the back row. Dylan Farrell moves into the starting side for centre Beau Champion who broke his leg against Penrith, with Jamie Simpson joining the bench. Jason Clark starts at lock, Sam Burgess moves to prop and Jaiman Lowe goes to the bench.

After sleeping their way through the first 60 minutes last week the Eels finished all over a Tigers outfit that should have been ahead by a lot more than four points at half time. You’d have been very brave to bet against an Eels win had the game gone to golden point but Luke Burt’s amazing missed penalty shot in the final minute allowed the Tigers to escape with the win.

It’s a cruel blow for a man who is legendary among the Parramatta faithful for his cool head under pressure. When you think Luke Burt, you think a calmly slotted field goal in the dying seconds or a sideline conversion drilled over the black dot to win a game. We may never know what caused Parramatta’s ‘Mr Reliable’ to skew a shot he would normally tap over blindfolded but Burt and the Eels will need to get back on the horse for one more tilt at an unlikely finals berth.

They will have the services of Ben Smith for this match after he returns from a two-match ban following an unsuccessful challenge against a dangerous contact charge, pushing Justin Horo back to the bench and Taniela Lasalo out of the side. Daniel Mortimer should be well rested by now for his return at five eighth with Kris Keating moving to halfback to cover for Jeff Robson who is out with a knee injury.

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